1Main point 13:13 ↗Gerstner characterizes the market rally as earnings driven and contrasts it with the valuation bubble of 2000.Source: All-In Podcast · AI review of transcript; paraphrase
Brad Gerstner: No AI Bubble, Semis Eat the Nasdaq & AI's Take Off Problem
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- 3:13 ↗
This is not about multiple expansion. This is an earnings driven market expansion. We've seen multiple contraction this year. Earnings are up 26% of course driven a lot by AI infrastructure, but the multiple on the NASDAQ and the S&P is actually down. Look at Nvidia trading at 14 times next year's fully taxed gap earnings. This is no bubble like it was in 2000.
- 7:59 ↗
going to build a a trillion half dollars a year in capex, somebody has to pay for it, right? Microsoft's not paying for it. They're building it to rent it. Google's not paying for it. They're building it to rent it. Amazon's building it to rent it. Well, who is the person renting it? We have to have the offtake revenues in order to pay that rent. So if we exit this year around,
- 13:57 ↗
Atoms and energy are hard. So getting back to can we stand up 43 gawatt of compute. Our total compute in the country is less than 40 gawatt. Doing this in one year, we've got to overcome permitting and local opposition. You guys see all of that. grid interconnection delays, skilled labor shortages, power equipment is sold out. It's the largest buildout in the history of the country. I would suggest Dylan's forecast to 43 gawatt next year is too aggressive. I don't think we're going to get there. I think the total amount we're actually going to stand up is somewhere closer to 25 gawatt. And I think of that 25 gawatt, half of it will be for anthropic and open AI.
- 17:50 ↗
medium position. We're mentally flexible. If we see those revenues come in big for these next few months and we see oil prices retreat, we're going to put more chips on the table. If not, we'll, you know, we'll reserve the right to go even smaller. With that, thank you all. Thanks for having me.
