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Question threshold>1.6Mactive FSD subscriptions
01AutonomyTesla · Q3 2026

Will Tesla report over 1.6 million active FSD subscriptions in Q3?

Awaiting forecasts · Closes Sep 30, 2026

Consensus · No estimate yet
Bull case · Yes

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Bear case · No

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Sources & outcome rules 1 source · Awaiting forecasts

Track adoption using the company's disclosed subscription metric.

Tesla · Q2 2026 shareholder update ↗Published Jul 22, 2026 · Checked Sep 27, 2026

Tesla's Q2 2026 operational summary reported 1.48 million active FSD subscriptions. This is a subscription metric, not a count of autonomous vehicles.

Outcome rules

YES if Tesla's first official Q3 2026 shareholder update reports active FSD subscriptions strictly greater than 1.60 million at quarter-end. Exactly 1.60 million is NO. Use Tesla's active FSD subscriptions definition in the Q2 2026 update. If the definition changes materially or the metric is omitted, leave unresolved. Do not substitute robotaxi riders or miles driven. The period is July–September 2026. If not disclosed by November 15, leave unresolved; missing disclosure is not NO. Later revisions do not change this edition's outcome.

Forecast cutoff: 10/1/2026, 6:59:59 AM UTC

Official outcome source ↗

About the forecasts

Astra, Fable, and Grok each receive the same evidence packet independently. Agreement is not evidence of accuracy; forecasts are unscored. Sources support the inputs, not necessarily the conclusions.

Question threshold>500kvehicle deliveries
02DeliveriesTesla · Q3 2026

Will Tesla deliver more than 500,000 vehicles in Q3?

Awaiting forecasts · Closes Sep 30, 2026

Consensus · No estimate yet
Bull case · Yes

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Bear case · No

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Sources & outcome rules 4 sources · Awaiting forecasts

A stronger quarter is one thing. Crossing half a million requires another step up in both demand and execution.

Tesla · Q2 production, deliveries & deployments ↗Published Jul 2, 2026 · Checked Sep 27, 2026

Tesla reported 480,126 deliveries and 451,758 vehicles produced in Q2 2026. The 500,000 threshold is about 4.1% above that delivery total. One quarter is a reference point, not a demand forecast.

Kalshi · Tesla Q3 deliveries >500,000 (KXTSLA-26OCTDELIV-500000) ↗Published Sep 14, 2026 · Checked Sep 27, 2026

Repo snapshot period=Q3 2026, checkedAt=2026-09-14T18:48:24.610Z. Contract KXTSLA-26OCTDELIV-500000: yesPrice=0.36 (Yes 36%), yesBid=0.36, yesAsk=0.42, volume=3553.08, volume24h=138.07, lastTradeAt=2026-09-14T15:15:57.313298Z. Polymarket in this snapshot is null; do not invent a Polymarket quote.

Repo · Tesla quarterly delivery actuals ↗Published Jul 22, 2026 · Checked Sep 27, 2026

Quarterly deliveries from repo file tesla-delivery-actuals.json (SEC exhibit source): Q2 2025=384122, Q3 2025=497099, Q4 2025=418227, Q1 2026=358023, Q2 2026=480126. Q3 2025 was 497,099 (just under 500k). Q2 2026 was 480,126.

Kalshi · nearby delivery thresholds (ladder context) ↗Published Sep 14, 2026 · Checked Sep 27, 2026

Same snapshot ladder for context (yesPrice by threshold): >450000:0.72, >470000:0.72, >480000:0.65, >490000:0.55, >495000:0.42, >500000:0.36, >505000:0.29, >510000:0.24, >520000:0.23. Use as market context only; do not treat as an AI forecast.

Outcome rules

YES if Tesla's first official Q3 2026 production and deliveries release reports total vehicle deliveries strictly greater than 500,000 for July–September 2026. Exactly 500,000 is NO. Use the company total, not production or registrations. If no official figure is available by October 31, leave unresolved; do not infer NO. Later revisions do not change this edition's outcome.

Forecast cutoff: 10/1/2026, 6:59:59 AM UTC

Official outcome source ↗

About the forecasts

Astra, Fable, and Grok each receive the same evidence packet independently. Agreement is not evidence of accuracy; forecasts are unscored. Sources support the inputs, not necessarily the conclusions.

Question threshold<15days of inventory
03DeliveriesTesla · Q3 2026

Will Tesla vehicle inventory fall below 15 days in Q3?

Awaiting forecasts · Closes Sep 30, 2026

Consensus · No estimate yet
Bull case · Yes

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Bear case · No

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Sources & outcome rules 1 source · Awaiting forecasts

Watch the balance between available inventory and the pace of customer deliveries.

Tesla · Q2 2026 shareholder update ↗Published Jul 22, 2026 · Checked Sep 27, 2026

Tesla reported 15 days of global vehicle inventory at the end of Q2 2026. Days of supply is distinct from the accounting value of inventory.

Outcome rules

YES if Tesla's first official Q3 2026 shareholder update reports global vehicle inventory days of supply strictly less than 15 at quarter-end. Exactly 15 days is NO. Use the company's reported global vehicle inventory days of supply and its published precision. Do not substitute inventory dollars or calculate days from registrations. The period is July–September 2026. If not disclosed by November 15, leave unresolved; missing disclosure is not NO. Later revisions do not change this edition's outcome.

Forecast cutoff: 10/1/2026, 6:59:59 AM UTC

Official outcome source ↗

About the forecasts

Astra, Fable, and Grok each receive the same evidence packet independently. Agreement is not evidence of accuracy; forecasts are unscored. Sources support the inputs, not necessarily the conclusions.

Question threshold>13.5GWh deployed
04EnergyTesla · Q3 2026

Will Tesla deploy more than 13.5 GWh of storage in Q3?

Awaiting forecasts · Closes Sep 30, 2026

Consensus · No estimate yet
Bull case · Yes

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Bear case · No

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Sources & outcome rules 1 source · Awaiting forecasts

The question is when capacity becomes completed deployments. Project timing can move an entire quarter.

Tesla · Q2 production, deliveries & deployments ↗Published Jul 2, 2026 · Checked Sep 27, 2026

Tesla reported 13.5 GWh of energy storage deployments in Q2 2026. This measures deployed storage, not factory capacity. The release does not give a Q3 project-completion schedule.

Outcome rules

YES if Tesla's first official Q3 2026 release reports energy storage deployments strictly greater than 13.5 GWh for July–September 2026. Exactly 13.5 GWh is NO. Manufacturing capacity, orders and revenue do not count. If not disclosed by October 31, leave unresolved. Use the published precision and do not infer unrounded values.

Forecast cutoff: 10/1/2026, 6:59:59 AM UTC

Official outcome source ↗

About the forecasts

Astra, Fable, and Grok each receive the same evidence packet independently. Agreement is not evidence of accuracy; forecasts are unscored. Sources support the inputs, not necessarily the conclusions.

Question threshold>$3.5Benergy revenue
05EnergyTesla · Q3 2026

Will Tesla energy revenue exceed $3.5 billion in Q3?

Awaiting forecasts · Closes Sep 30, 2026

Consensus · No estimate yet
Bull case · Yes

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Bear case · No

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Sources & outcome rules 1 source · Awaiting forecasts

Completed projects still need to translate into recognized revenue.

Tesla · Q2 2026 shareholder update ↗Published Jul 22, 2026 · Checked Sep 27, 2026

Q2 2026 energy generation and storage revenue was $3.139 billion. The revenue measure is separate from deployed GWh.

Outcome rules

YES if Tesla's first official Q3 2026 shareholder update reports energy generation and storage revenue strictly greater than $3,500 million. Exactly $3,500 million is NO. Use the reported segment revenue, not storage deployments, order backlog or total company revenue. The period is July–September 2026. If not disclosed by November 15, leave unresolved; missing disclosure is not NO. Later revisions do not change this edition's outcome.

Forecast cutoff: 10/1/2026, 6:59:59 AM UTC

Official outcome source ↗

About the forecasts

Astra, Fable, and Grok each receive the same evidence packet independently. Agreement is not evidence of accuracy; forecasts are unscored. Sources support the inputs, not necessarily the conclusions.

Question threshold>480kvehicles produced
06ProductionTesla · Q3 2026

Will Tesla produce more than 480,000 vehicles in Q3?

Awaiting forecasts · Closes Sep 30, 2026

Consensus · No estimate yet
Bull case · Yes

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Bear case · No

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Sources & outcome rules 1 source · Awaiting forecasts

Output puts the delivery debate in context. More vehicles built still needs to translate into customer demand.

Tesla · Q2 production, deliveries & deployments ↗Published Jul 2, 2026 · Checked Sep 27, 2026

Tesla reported Q2 2026 production of 451,758 vehicles. Producing 480,000 would require roughly 6.3% sequential growth. The release does not establish Q3 utilization or downtime.

Outcome rules

YES if Tesla's first official Q3 2026 production and deliveries release reports total vehicle production strictly greater than 480,000 for July–September 2026. Exactly 480,000 is NO. Use total production across models, not deliveries or installed annual capacity. If not disclosed by October 31, leave unresolved; later revisions do not change this edition's outcome.

Forecast cutoff: 10/1/2026, 6:59:59 AM UTC

Official outcome source ↗

About the forecasts

Astra, Fable, and Grok each receive the same evidence packet independently. Agreement is not evidence of accuracy; forecasts are unscored. Sources support the inputs, not necessarily the conclusions.

Question threshold>$30Btotal revenue
07FinancialsTesla · Q3 2026

Will Tesla revenue exceed $30 billion in Q3?

Awaiting forecasts · Closes Sep 30, 2026

Consensus · No estimate yet
Bull case · Yes

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Bear case · No

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Sources & outcome rules 1 source · Awaiting forecasts

Can growth across vehicles, energy and services lift the revenue total?

Tesla · Q2 2026 shareholder update ↗Published Jul 22, 2026 · Checked Sep 27, 2026

Q2 2026 total revenue was $28.236 billion. Revenue depends on pricing and business mix as well as delivery volumes.

Outcome rules

YES if Tesla's first official Q3 2026 shareholder update reports total revenues strictly greater than $30,000 million. Exactly $30,000 million is NO. Use consolidated revenue, not automotive revenue alone. The period is July–September 2026. If not disclosed by November 15, leave unresolved; missing disclosure is not NO. Later revisions do not change this edition's outcome.

Forecast cutoff: 10/1/2026, 6:59:59 AM UTC

Official outcome source ↗

About the forecasts

Astra, Fable, and Grok each receive the same evidence packet independently. Agreement is not evidence of accuracy; forecasts are unscored. Sources support the inputs, not necessarily the conclusions.

Question threshold>17%auto margin, ex. credits
08FinancialsTesla · Q3 2026

Will Tesla auto gross margin exceed 17% without credits in Q3?

Awaiting forecasts · Closes Sep 30, 2026

Consensus · No estimate yet
Bull case · Yes

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Bear case · No

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Sources & outcome rules 1 source · Awaiting forecasts

A closer look at automotive profitability after excluding regulatory credit sales.

Tesla · Q2 2026 shareholder update ↗Published Jul 22, 2026 · Checked Sep 27, 2026

Tesla reported automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credit sales of 16.3% in Q2 2026. This differs from total GAAP gross margin.

Outcome rules

YES if Tesla's first official Q3 2026 shareholder update reports automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credit sales strictly greater than 17.0%. Exactly 17.0% is NO. Use the explicitly disclosed non-GAAP margin and published precision. Do not substitute total GAAP gross margin or infer an unreported figure. The period is July–September 2026. If not disclosed by November 15, leave unresolved; missing disclosure is not NO. Later revisions do not change this edition's outcome.

Forecast cutoff: 10/1/2026, 6:59:59 AM UTC

Official outcome source ↗

About the forecasts

Astra, Fable, and Grok each receive the same evidence packet independently. Agreement is not evidence of accuracy; forecasts are unscored. Sources support the inputs, not necessarily the conclusions.

Question threshold>$0free cash flow
09FinancialsTesla · Q3 2026

Will Tesla return to positive free cash flow in Q3?

Awaiting forecasts · Closes Sep 30, 2026

Consensus · No estimate yet
Bull case · Yes

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Bear case · No

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Sources & outcome rules 1 source · Awaiting forecasts

Will operating cash generation cover capital spending this quarter?

Tesla · Q2 2026 shareholder update ↗Published Jul 22, 2026 · Checked Sep 27, 2026

Q2 operating cash flow of $4.697 billion and capital expenditures of $5.789 billion resulted in negative $1.092 billion of free cash flow.

Outcome rules

YES if Tesla's first official Q3 2026 shareholder update reports free cash flow strictly greater than zero. Zero is NO. Use Tesla's disclosed free cash flow measure: operating cash flow less capital expenditures. Do not substitute net income or the change in cash balance. The period is July–September 2026. If not disclosed by November 15, leave unresolved; missing disclosure is not NO. Later revisions do not change this edition's outcome.

Forecast cutoff: 10/1/2026, 6:59:59 AM UTC

Official outcome source ↗

About the forecasts

Astra, Fable, and Grok each receive the same evidence packet independently. Agreement is not evidence of accuracy; forecasts are unscored. Sources support the inputs, not necessarily the conclusions.

Question threshold>85kSupercharger connectors
10ChargingTesla · Q3 2026

Will Tesla have more than 85,000 Supercharger connectors in Q3?

Awaiting forecasts · Closes Sep 30, 2026

Consensus · No estimate yet
Bull case · Yes

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Bear case · No

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Sources & outcome rules 1 source · Awaiting forecasts

Count individual connectors across the network, rather than station locations.

Tesla · Q2 2026 shareholder update ↗Published Jul 22, 2026 · Checked Sep 27, 2026

Tesla reported 82,357 Supercharger connectors and 8,704 stations at the end of Q2 2026. The two counts are distinct.

Outcome rules

YES if Tesla's first official Q3 2026 shareholder update reports Supercharger connectors strictly greater than 85,000 at quarter-end. Exactly 85,000 is NO. Count reported Supercharger connectors worldwide, not stations or planned installations. The period is July–September 2026. If not disclosed by November 15, leave unresolved; missing disclosure is not NO. Later revisions do not change this edition's outcome.

Forecast cutoff: 10/1/2026, 6:59:59 AM UTC

Official outcome source ↗

About the forecasts

Astra, Fable, and Grok each receive the same evidence packet independently. Agreement is not evidence of accuracy; forecasts are unscored. Sources support the inputs, not necessarily the conclusions.

Question threshold>2,000active robotaxis
11AutonomyTesla · Q3 2026

Will Tesla have over 2,000 active robotaxis by Dec 31, 2026?

Awaiting forecasts · Closes Dec 31, 2026

Consensus · No estimate yet
Bull case · Yes

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Bear case · No

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Sources & outcome rules 1 source · Awaiting forecasts

Track the operating driverless ride-hailing fleet, rather than vehicle capacity or announced expansion.

Tesla · Q2 2026 update: autonomy and robotics ↗Published Jul 22, 2026 · Checked Sep 27, 2026

Tesla reports that Cybercab production began and Optimus production lines are being installed. Initial Optimus builds are intended for training and functionality development. These disclosures do not establish the question thresholds.

Outcome rules

YES if Tesla reports more than 2,000 distinct vehicles active in its worldwide paid driverless Robotaxi service as of December 31, 2026 (Pacific Time). Active means available for public paid rides without an onboard human driver or safety monitor. Count all Tesla models once; exclude supervised ride-hailing, test-only vehicles, planned fleets and cumulative retired vehicles. NO if a comparable disclosed year-end count is 2,000 or fewer. Use the first qualifying Tesla disclosure published on https://ir.tesla.com by May 15, 2027; later revisions do not change this edition. If disclosure is missing, ambiguous, or uses an incompatible definition, leave unresolved; absence of disclosure is not NO.

Forecast cutoff: 1/1/2027, 7:59:59 AM UTC

Official outcome source ↗

About the forecasts

Astra, Fable, and Grok each receive the same evidence packet independently. Agreement is not evidence of accuracy; forecasts are unscored. Sources support the inputs, not necessarily the conclusions.

Question threshold>1,000Optimus robots produced
12OptimusTesla · Q3 2026

Will Tesla produce over 1,000 Optimus robots in 2026?

Awaiting forecasts · Closes Dec 31, 2026

Consensus · No estimate yet
Bull case · Yes

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Bear case · No

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Sources & outcome rules 1 source · Awaiting forecasts

Track completed robots to distinguish manufacturing output from installed capacity.

Tesla · Q2 2026 update: autonomy and robotics ↗Published Jul 22, 2026 · Checked Sep 27, 2026

Tesla reports that Cybercab production began and Optimus production lines are being installed. Initial Optimus builds are intended for training and functionality development. These disclosures do not establish the question thresholds.

Outcome rules

YES if Tesla reports more than 1,000 completed Optimus robots manufactured worldwide during January 1–December 31, 2026 (Pacific Time). NO if the comparable annual count is 1,000 or fewer. Include completed training and deployment units across generations, counted once; exclude unfinished assemblies, rebuilds of already-counted units, installed capacity and planned production. Use the first qualifying Tesla disclosure published on https://ir.tesla.com by May 15, 2027; later revisions do not change this edition. If disclosure is missing, ambiguous, or uses an incompatible definition, leave unresolved; absence of disclosure is not NO.

Forecast cutoff: 1/1/2027, 7:59:59 AM UTC

Official outcome source ↗

About the forecasts

Astra, Fable, and Grok each receive the same evidence packet independently. Agreement is not evidence of accuracy; forecasts are unscored. Sources support the inputs, not necessarily the conclusions.

Question threshold>5,000Cybercabs produced
13AutonomyTesla · Q3 2026

Will Tesla have produced over 5,000 Cybercabs by the end of Q1 2027?

Awaiting forecasts · Closes Mar 31, 2027

Consensus · No estimate yet
Bull case · Yes

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Bear case · No

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Sources & outcome rules 1 source · Awaiting forecasts

Measure completed Cybercab vehicles as the purpose-built robotaxi moves through its production ramp.

Tesla · Q2 2026 update: autonomy and robotics ↗Published Jul 22, 2026 · Checked Sep 27, 2026

Tesla reports that Cybercab production began and Optimus production lines are being installed. Initial Optimus builds are intended for training and functionality development. These disclosures do not establish the question thresholds.

Outcome rules

YES if Tesla reports cumulative worldwide production of more than 5,000 completed production-specification Cybercab vehicles through March 31, 2027 (Pacific Time), including earlier quarters. NO if the comparable cumulative count is 5,000 or fewer. Exclude prototypes, unfinished vehicles, installed capacity, production-rate targets and other Tesla models. Deliveries are not a substitute for production. Use the first qualifying Tesla disclosure published on https://ir.tesla.com by May 15, 2027; later revisions do not change this edition. If disclosure is missing, ambiguous, or uses an incompatible definition, leave unresolved; absence of disclosure is not NO.

Forecast cutoff: 4/1/2027, 6:59:59 AM UTC

Official outcome source ↗

About the forecasts

Astra, Fable, and Grok each receive the same evidence packet independently. Agreement is not evidence of accuracy; forecasts are unscored. Sources support the inputs, not necessarily the conclusions.

Question threshold>100Optimus factory deployments
14OptimusTesla · Q3 2026

Will Tesla deploy over 100 Optimus robots in factory operations by the end of Q1 2027?

Awaiting forecasts · Closes Mar 31, 2027

Consensus · No estimate yet
Bull case · Yes

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Bear case · No

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Sources & outcome rules 1 source · Awaiting forecasts

Distinguish robots doing recurring factory work from units used only for training or demonstrations.

Tesla · Q2 2026 update: autonomy and robotics ↗Published Jul 22, 2026 · Checked Sep 27, 2026

Tesla reports that Cybercab production began and Optimus production lines are being installed. Initial Optimus builds are intended for training and functionality development. These disclosures do not establish the question thresholds.

Outcome rules

YES if Tesla reports more than 100 distinct Optimus robots deployed in recurring production or logistics work at Tesla factories worldwide as of March 31, 2027 (Pacific Time). NO if the comparable quarter-end count is 100 or fewer. Count each robot once across tasks and sites; exclude storage, training-only units, Optimus Academy data collection, laboratory trials and one-off demonstrations. Do not substitute cumulative shipments or robots manufactured. Use the first qualifying Tesla disclosure published on https://ir.tesla.com by May 15, 2027; later revisions do not change this edition. If disclosure is missing, ambiguous, or uses an incompatible definition, leave unresolved; absence of disclosure is not NO.

Forecast cutoff: 4/1/2027, 6:59:59 AM UTC

Official outcome source ↗

About the forecasts

Astra, Fable, and Grok each receive the same evidence packet independently. Agreement is not evidence of accuracy; forecasts are unscored. Sources support the inputs, not necessarily the conclusions.

Question threshold≥8hours in an autonomous shift
15OptimusTesla · Q3 2026

Will Tesla report Optimus completing an eight-hour factory shift autonomously by the end of Q1 2027?

Awaiting forecasts · Closes Mar 31, 2027

Consensus · No estimate yet
Bull case · Yes

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Bear case · No

Awaiting forecast reasoning.

Sources & outcome rules 1 source · Awaiting forecasts

Test sustained useful factory capability with an explicit duration and human-intervention standard.

Tesla · Q2 2026 update: autonomy and robotics ↗Published Jul 22, 2026 · Checked Sep 27, 2026

Tesla reports that Cybercab production began and Optimus production lines are being installed. Initial Optimus builds are intended for training and functionality development. These disclosures do not establish the question thresholds.

Outcome rules

YES if Tesla explicitly documents that, by March 31, 2027 (Pacific Time), at least one Optimus robot completed a single factory production or logistics shift lasting at least eight consecutive hours, performing its assigned work without teleoperation, physical human assistance or human task-level intervention. Autonomous charging and scheduled breaks may occur within the shift; a demonstration, training-only session or edited video alone does not qualify. NO only if Tesla explicitly states that no robot achieved this defined milestone by the deadline. Use the first qualifying Tesla disclosure published on https://ir.tesla.com by May 15, 2027; later revisions do not change this edition. If disclosure is missing, ambiguous, or uses an incompatible definition, leave unresolved; absence of disclosure is not NO.

Forecast cutoff: 4/1/2027, 6:59:59 AM UTC

Official outcome source ↗

About the forecasts

Astra, Fable, and Grok each receive the same evidence packet independently. Agreement is not evidence of accuracy; forecasts are unscored. Sources support the inputs, not necessarily the conclusions.

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